Britain sees 'demographic turning point' of more deaths than births

Britain is projected to have more deaths than births in 2026, as well as through the rest of the decade, with experts warning the nation is facing a "demographic turning point."

Key Takeaways:

• Estimates from the Office for National Statistics project there will be more deaths than births in Britain in 2026.

• That trend is expected to continue through the rest of the decade, with Britain going into population decline by the 2050s.

• With migration also slowing, economists are warning that this could have major repercussions.

The Details:

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) is projecting that there will be more deaths than births in Britain for the first time this year, and that this trend is expected to continue through 2034. With net migration also slowing, the overall population is likely to decline.

Between 2026 and 2034, it is projected that there will be 6,396,000 births, compared to 6,846,000 deaths, with 2026 said to be the beginning of the negative trend.

Charlie McCurdy, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, called it a “demographic turning point."

Deaths are expected to outnumber births in 2026 and will do so every year for the rest of the decade and beyond. Migration will account for all future population growth in the UK, but migration levels are falling too. This slower population growth will also reduce the size of the workforce and consequently lower tax receipts, adding up to £3 billion a year to borrowing by 2030.

The population is expected to grow to 72.5 million in 2054 before beginning to decline, falling to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million in 2074.

“Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected," James Robards, head of household and population projections at ONS, said. “This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions — reflective of the recent steep fall in net migration — and lower fertility assumptions. At the UK level, the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing.”

The Big Picture:

Falling birth rates are a disturbing trend across the globe. Japan, for example, has reported the lowest birth rate in recorded history, though similar crises are being seen in numerous countries, including Jamaica, Singapore, France, Poland, Taiwan, and the United States.

Low fertility rates are often paired with aging populations, which causes major economic problems. This causes a large number of retirees, yet without workers to pay into the system, therefore creating immense pressure placed on the country's health care, pension, and social services.

Making the issue doubly concerning is the spread of legalized assisted suicide and euthanasia across the globe. It would not be surprising that vulnerable populations, like the elderly, will be pressured into euthanasia to save money, which has already began occurring in Canada.

The Bottom Line:

Decades of anti-child and anti-family propaganda have contributed to falling birth rates, and the repercussions are now being felt.