New Zealand birth rate falls to historic low

The birth rate in New Zealand is continuing to fall, despite the growth of the nation's Māori ethnic population.

Key Takeaways:

• New Zealand's birth rate dropped to 1.53 births per woman, a historic low.

• While the Māori ethnic population and overall population rose slightly, the birth rate continued to decline.

• The declining birth rate could cause a demographic crisis.

The Details:

According to a report from Stats NZ, the Māori population grew by 1.2% (10,800 people) from 2024 to 2025, compared to 0.6% for the total population of New Zealand.

Despite the increase in the Māori population, New Zealanders are still not having enough children to replace the nation's total population over time. Live births for the year ending March 2026 totaled just 57,927, down from 58,539. The fertility rate fell from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman — a historic low — while deaths rose slightly.

Some New Zealanders blame abortion for the declining birth rate. A woman named Cathrine commented on Centrist, "The continual whining about lack of population – not enough children being born, fertility rates are down, etc, etc, is totally ridiculous when no-one has guts enough to factor in the millions of babies being aborted world-wide. Stop abortions, support educating self-thinking-able children into society than there will be no need for continual immigration of incompatible cultures to our countries."

Distinguished Professor at Massey University, Paul Spoonley, explained, "We now know what's happening in terms of our total fertility rate and that it is declining - and declining quite significantly."

Zoom In:

RNZ reported that women are skipping motherhood in favor of growing their education and careers, but the cost of having children is a contributing factor.

"And the [other] factor, I think, is the concerns particularly amongst millennials, and I think Generation Z, that the environment is important: Can I have children and not impact upon the environment?" said Spoonley.

He added, "There's been all these measures put in place to try and halt or reverse fertility decline and there are literally no examples of them succeeding. So, I think fertility decline is simply part of our demographic future."

The Bottom Line:

Experts believe the declining birth rate in New Zealand will lead to a huge demographic crisis in which a quarter of the population will be over the age of 65 by 2048. New Zealand has yet to come up with a strategy to improve the birth rate despite a 1986 report raising concerns about the issue.

"That report went largely unheeded," wrote Joel Abrams for The Conversation. "The risk is this one does, too."

While he doesn't believe New Zealand is in a crisis right now, he feels that the government must take action before it's too late.