Researchers: Higher inflation contributes to lower birth rates

A milestone working paper at the Institute for Family Studies, authored by University of Mississippi economists Ahmed A. Adesete and Clara E. Piano, has revealed a sobering reality: unexpected inflation is gradually undermining family growth in America, hitting young women hardest and worsening the nation’s birth rate crisis.

Key Takeaways:

• A new working paper reveals that inflation directly impacts if and when families have children.

• Younger women are more likely to delay childbirth when economic conditions appear unfavorable.

• High inflation may be directly contributing to the drop in birth rates.

• Pro-family advocates should call on lawmakers to control inflation rates and implement pro-natal policies such as child tax credits and paid leave, hedged against price volatility.

The Details:

Published on January 9, 2026, the study evaluates state-level figures from 2003-2023, depicting how inflation surpassing many families’ budget has given rise to households putting off or ditching the notion of parenthood altogether.  

Unanticipated price increases exceeding what families expect are impacting childbearing decisions across America. These findings highlight economic instability over mere inflation, and associate daily struggles with increasing living costs to larger population shifts, according to the Institute for Family Studies (IFS).

According to the working paper:

“When inflation is low, stable, and close to expectations, households don’t face a strong incentive to deviate from their existing fertility plans. In contrast, when inflation exceeds expectations, households face more uncertainty about future wages, prices, and borrowing conditions. Higher-than-expected inflation erodes real purchasing power and thus immediately increases the cost of raising a child. As such, households may prioritize precautionary savings, reduce discretionary spending, and delay childbearing decisions.”

“We find that higher rates of unexpected inflation are statistically significantly associated with lower fertility rates. In particular, younger women (under age 25) seem to be the most responsive, suggesting they postpone childbearing because they are more financially constrained and/or have more flexibility in adjusting the timing of births.”

Noting the impact of high inflation rates on younger women, the IFS pointed out:

“Younger women often have more scope and flexibility to postpone childbearing, especially when economic conditions appear unfavorable. Older women, by contrast, have less flexibility, so their fertility responses tend to be smaller and reflect changes in completed family size rather than timing.”

Studies indicate that when media reports highlight surging inflation, families quickly adjust their forecasts, tightening household finances even more. When child-rearing expenses rise, married couples naturally choose smaller families.

Zoom In:

For pro-life advocates, this working paper is proof that economic instability and uncertainty does erode the appeal of parenthood and childbearing.  

High inflation undermines fertility rates, impacting younger generations hardest by unpredictability, financial stress, and reduced purchasing power. Such a situation has given rise to birth rates dipping below replacement levels amid cost-of-living struggles, as many couples perceive they lack sufficient finances to welcome new life into this world.

Moving Forward:

In response, pro-family advocates should call on lawmakers to control inflation rates and implement pro-natal policies such as child tax credits and paid leave, hedged against price volatility. With stable income, families may be able to resist economic pressures and push back against population decline.

If the urgent economic situation as portrayed in the working paper is not taken seriously, existing economic pressure would lead to childless futures, an outcome that would mean the doom of the country’s future. However, if lawmakers try to address the country’s demographic crisis by reducing economic pressures like lowering inflation rates, catch-up births are possible among younger women averse to higher inflation. After all, as the IFS admitted, “Credible, stable monetary policy influences more than price stability; it also provides an important foundation for family formation and household fertility plans.”