Response to Jessica Valenti: No, pro-life laws aren't worsening states' public health outcomes

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this guest post are solely those of the author.

On Monday, Jessica Valenti responded to my Live Action News article that was also reposted on the Charlotte Lozier Institute’s website. Earlier this month during an appearance on Molly Jong Fast’s "Fast Politics" podcast, Valenti wrongly claimed that a number of public health metrics, including maternal mortality rates and infant mortality rates, had worsened since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

Fallacies:

In my article, I cited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data to show that Valenti was incorrect. Maternal mortality rates and infant mortality rates have both fallen since Dobbs. 

In a video response that Valenti posted to her X account, she claimed that I clearly believe my “readers and other anti-abortion activists are f***ing idiots,” because I cited national data on public health trends in my article. Valenti, however, claims she was only talking about public health trends in “anti-abortion states.” (Profanity warning)

But when Valenti appeared on Jong-Fast’s podcast, she never differentiated between “anti-abortion” states and other states; she simply claimed, "the infant mortality rate is going up, the maternal mortality rate is going up.”

That aside, Valenti is still incorrect when she claims public health outcomes have worsened in states that have enacted pro-life laws. 

Cherry-picking incorrect data points:

In the rest of her response video, Valenti presents cherry-picked data points in a misleading or incorrect way:

• MISLEADING CLAIM: Valenti claims that pregnant women are twice as likely to die in a state that has an abortion ban. However, many states with strong pro-life laws are Southern states with high poverty rates and below average public health outcomes. Valenti does not present data showing that pro-life laws actually worsened public health outcomes in these states. (Furthermore, that statistic likely came from a Gender Equity Policy Institute analysis that was never peer-reviewed and which did not make the data public.)

• INCORRECT CLAIM: Valenti claims that when Texas passed an abortion ban, the maternal mortality increased by 56 percent. This is incorrect. Valenti likely obtained that figure from the same Gender Equity Policy Institute analysis that, once again, was never peer-reviewed. While the analysis did show rising maternal mortality rates in Texas in 2020 and 2021, it also showed the Texas maternal mortality rate fell by more than 35 percent in 2022 – the year the Texas abortion ban took effect. Taking the data at face value, there was no consistent upward trajectory in the maternal mortality rate. Furthermore, the year Texas’ strongest pro-life law took effect, maternal mortality actually fell.  

• INCORRECT CLAIM: Valenti then claims that after Texas banned abortion, infant mortality increased by more than 11 percent. Once again, Valenti is incorrect. She likely obtained this figure from a June 2024 JAMA Pediatrics study which analyzed how the Texas Heartbeat Act – not the Texas abortion ban – impacted infant mortality. While this study did find an increase in infant mortality, some context is important: this study analyzed infant deaths, not the infant mortality rate. This is important because the increase in infant deaths in Texas in 2022 is partly due population increases – including increases in illegal immigrants. Furthermore, the 2022 infant

If Valenti's claims were correct, one would expect to see large increase in infant mortality in a range of states that have enacted pro-life laws. The data does not reflect this.

A 2024 Journal of the American Medical Association study analyzed trends in infant mortality rates. In 2023, the study found that states with abortion bans actually had larger declines in the infant mortality rate than states without abortion bans.

Overall, only one of the 14 states that enacted an abortion ban experienced a statistically significant increase in the infant mortality rate. There was no large, widespread increase in infant mortality in pro-life states post-Dobbs.  

The Bottom Line:

Since the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs decision, Valenti and other supporters have tried to make the case that pro-life laws worsen public health outcomes. While they have worked hard to amplify some cherry-picked data points, they have not found much.

Overall, both maternal mortality rates and infant mortality rates have declined since Dobbs. A recent JAMA Network Open study found larger increases in practicing OBGYNs in states with pro-life laws than in states where abortion is legally protected. 

Overall, strong pro-life laws are often coupled with good public health outcomes. 

Michael J. New is an Assistant Professor of Practice at The Catholic University of America and a Senior Associate Scholar at the Charlotte Lozier Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_J_New