The estimates are in: Have abortions decreased or increased since the end of Roe?

Abortions reached over one million after the reversal of Roe v. Wade, according to #WeCount’s October 2023 data, which estimated 1,072,240 preborn babies were killed between June 2022 and June 2023. This includes 88,600 committed by virtual-only abortion pill dispensaries.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Abortion numbers have been ticking upward since 2017. It seems that overturning Roe v. Wade did not change this.

• As time passes since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, any decreases seen as a result of pro-life state laws appear to dwindle due to massive increases in pro-abortion states. There are multiple possible reasons for this.

• Virtual-only abortion pill dispensaries appear to make up 8% of all abortions based on #WeCount estimates.

• Though virtual-only abortion pill dispensaries have shown a large increase in sales, that increase appears to be leveling off.

#WeCount research is sponsored by the Society of Family Planning (SFP) and includes contributors from multiple universities, Planned Parenthood and former “special affiliate” the Guttmacher Institute, and Ibis Reproductive Health — an organization previously funded by abortion pill manufacturer Danco Laboratories and currently funded by both SFP and the Packard Foundation. SFP was founded in 2005 with contributions from the Packard Foundation, and is heavily funded by both the Packard and (Warren) Buffett Foundations. The Buffett and Packard Foundations financed abortion pill manufacturer Danco Laboratories in its early days.

Abortion numbers have been ticking upward since 2017. In 2020, before Roe fell, Guttmacher recorded 930,160 abortions committed nationally — an increase of 67,840 over the 862,320 reported in 2017. And in states that have implemented stricter pro-life protections, about 119,850 abortions were committed in 2020, according to Guttmacher data — leaving some to wonder why the latest #WeCount numbers are not showing larger decreases.

The further away from the Dobbs decision, the more diluted the decreases become:

• In October of 2022, the #WeCount report claimed that the number of abortions had declined by nearly 11,000 (10,670) nationally between June (when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade) and August 2022.

• In April of 2023, an estimated 32,260 fewer abortions were reported by the group in the six months following Dobbs (July to December of 2022).

• By June of 2023, the decreases continued to dilute when #WeCount estimated just over 25,000 fewer abortions took place from July 2022 through March 2023 — the nine months following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization court decision.

• The decreases appeared to evaporate entirely in #WeCount’s October 2023 report, when there appeared to be a cumulative increase of 2,200 abortions per month between April 2022 and June 2023.

Decreases are offset by increases

“States with abortion bans experienced the greatest reductions in numbers of abortions. In states with total abortion bans, cumulatively there have been 94,930 fewer clinician-provided abortions in the year since Dobbs,” the report claimed, while “States where abortion remained legal saw an average of 9,733 more abortions per month and a cumulative total of 116,790 more abortions in those states in the 12 months post Dobbs than would have been expected,” the report added.

“States with the largest declines in the number of abortions during the 12-month period after the Dobbs decision compared to baseline include Texas (36,970), Georgia (19,660), Tennessee (13,930), Louisiana (9,110), Alabama (7,620), Wisconsin (7,260). A total of 14 states experienced a 100% decrease during the study period,” the #WeCount report indicated.

“Despite 94,930 fewer abortions in states that banned abortion, nationally we saw an increase of 183 average monthly abortions,” #WeCount reported.

Reasons for increases proposed by #WeCount: 

•  Abortion-providing facilities have increased efforts to see patients quickly, particularly in states with early gestational limits.

• Many facilities in states where abortion is permitted have expanded their capacity and new clinics have opened in surge states, including in Illinois, Kansas, and New Mexico.

• Many facilities have added capacity for telehealth services, and new virtual clinics, which offer only telehealth care at substantially lower price points have opened in these states.

• […S]everal states have passed laws to expand abortion access and protect providers; such laws have likely led to increases among both residents and people traveling from states with bans. Such laws include funding to cover abortion care for out-of-state residents, and policies that mandate insurance coverage of abortion.

• Given increases in states that are close to states with bans, abortion seekers very likely traveled to nearby states for care.

• Increased donor funding may have assisted patients who need to travel for care but could not afford to.

• Additionally, the increase in demand for abortion is supported by research in the US that suggests increasing desire to avoid pregnancy and declining birth rates; an increase in abortion incidence may be explained by economic forces and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Virtual-only abortion pill facilities sold 8% of all abortions 

Virtual abortion pill dispensaries have been on the rise in recent years, since the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) weakened important safety requirements (REMS) on the abortion pill by removing the in-person requirement and enabling the deadly drug regimen to be permanently shipped by mail and dispensed in retail pharmacies.

These dispensaries, referred to by some as “modern day back alley facilities,” often operate with little to no oversight or care and often ship abortion-inducing drugs to minors.

#WeCount’s research indicates that abortions provided by virtual-only facilities increased 96% between April 2022 and August 2022. They then declined nearly eight percent (7.54%) by September of 2022. Then, between October 2022 and December of 2022, they increased nearly 26% before dropping 16% in January 2023.

A nearly 18% drop occurred in February of 2023, prior to jumping nearly 31% in April 2023. But the latest data showed that abortions provided by virtual-only facilities then decreased over 10% by June 2023.

According to the latest #WeCount report, abortions provided by virtual-only facilities in April of 2022 (3,650) represented just four percent (4.42%) of total abortions (82,420) that same month, just prior to when the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. By June of 2023, abortions provided by virtual-only facilities (6,910) rose to nearly eight percent (7.78%) of total abortions (88,840), an increase of 89% in that time.

The following represents numbers from each published #WeCount report:

October of 2022 (April 2022 to August 2022): #WeCount’s report found that while the overall estimated number of abortions provided by brick-and-mortar facilities decreased nationally, “[A]bortions provided by virtual-only clinics increased from 2,830 in April 2022 (3% of total abortions), to 3,780 in August 2022 (4.7% of all abortions). This change represents an increase of 33% in the number of abortions provided from virtual-only services, comparing April and August 2022,” the report claimed.

This report did not include individual monthly numbers.

April of 2023 (April 2022 – December 2022): Here we see that #WeCount had updated the previously published numbers provided by virtual-only facilities in April 2022 (from 2,830 to 3,610). In addition, they updated August 2022 numbers from 3,780 to 7,160.

This report claimed that “Notably, while the overall number of abortions decreased, abortions provided by virtual clinic telehealth providers increased from 3,610 in April 2022 (4% of all abortions), before the decision, to 8,540 in December (11% of all abortions). This change represents an increase of 137% in the number of abortions provided from virtual-only services, comparing April and December 2022.

Telehealth abortions provided by virtual clinics have increased every month since April 2022 and by December, represent 9% of all abortions [462,440] across the post Dobbs six months [42,260], indicating that a greater percentage of US abortions are taking place by way of virtual-only clinics than before the Dobbs decision,” the #WeCount report claimed.

In addition, “Virtual clinics provided 3,590 telehealth abortions in states where abortion was permitted, and this increased to 8,540 by December,” the report also claimed.

June of 2023 (April 2022 to March 2023): #WeCount estimates were updated again.

Prior reports suggested that 3,610 abortions were committed by virtual-only facilities in April of 2022, but the updated figure was changed to 3,650. In addition, total abortion numbers were also adjusted up and down in this report.

According to the June of 2023 report, abortions for the two months prior to Dobbs totaled 163,460, while post-Dobbs (July 22-March 23) totals came to 711,280. Abortions committed by virtual-only clinics totaled 61,950.

This report claimed that, “Notably, while the overall number of abortions decreased, abortions provided by virtual clinic telehealth providers increased from an average of 4,025 abortions per month in the two months before the Dobbs decision (5% of all abortions), to an average of 7,461 abortions per month in the nine months following the Dobbs decision (9% of all abortions). This change represents an increase of 85% in the number of abortions provided from virtual-only services, comparing post to pre Dobbs,” the report claimed.

A review by Live Action News found #WeCount’s 7,461 average to be incorrect. The actual average should be 6,883 (July to December of 2023), consistent with other reports.

October 2023 (April 2022 to June 2023): #WeCount’s most recent report again included updated monthly total abortion numbers as well as those committed by virtual-only dispensaries.

The October 2023 report claimed that “Abortions provided by virtual-only clinics continue to increase in the post-Dobbs period, increasing from a monthly average of 4,045 abortions before the Dobbs decision (nearly 5% of all abortions), to an average of 6,950 abortions per month in the 12 months [83,400/987,580] following the Dobbs decision (greater than 8% of all abortions). This change represents an increase of 72% in the number of abortions provided from virtual-only services, comparing post to pre-Dobbs.”

The 72% calculation comes from looking at the increase between the pre- (8,090/164,230) versus post-Dobbs (83,400/987,580) percentages (.049 versus .0844).

A summary of #WeCount’s reports (below) indicates that abortions provided by virtual-only dispensaries may be leveling off:

• October 2022: Abortions provided by virtual-only clinics increased from 3% of total abortions in April of 2022 (2,830) before Dobbs to 4.7% of all abortions by August of 2022 (3,780), an increase of over 33%.

• April of 2023: Updated numbers showed that abortions provided by virtual-only clinics increased from 4% of total abortions in April of 2022 (3,610) before Dobbs to nearly 11% of all abortions by December of 2022 (8,540), an increase of 137%.

• June 2023: Abortions provided by virtual-only clinics increased from four percent (4.45%) of total abortions in April of 2022 (3,650) before Dobbs to seven percent (7.38%) by March of 2023 (6,710), an increase of nearly 84%.

• October 2023: Abortions provided by virtual-only clinics in April of 2022 (3,650) before Dobbs increased from four percent (4.42%) of total abortions to nearly eight percent (7.78%) by June of 2023 (6,910), an increase of 89%.