Death rate in U.S. expected to surpass birth rate by 2030

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that by 2030, America's death rate will be higher rate than its birth rate.

The report, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056, noted that the total fertility rate has been sliding down since 2006. Meanwhile, the life expectancy at birth is expected to increase from 79.0 years in 2026 to 82.4 years in 2056.

Key Takeaways:

• Fertility and birth rates have been declining for years.

• According to the Congressional Budget Office, the death rate will surpass the birth rate in the U.S. in just four years.

• The shrinking birth rate is believed to be a result of increased maternal age at the time of a first child's birth and/or the complete avoidance of children and parenthood.

• The only population that stands to increase is the immigrant population.

• The population decline will lead to economic hardship as there are fewer workers to support retirees.

The Details:

Fertility rates have been declining for years around the world, and the U.S. is no exception.

The CBO is now projecting that the total fertility rate in the U.S. will drop to 1.53 births per woman in 2026, well below the 2.1 births needed to maintain the population. The rate is predicted to be even lower for women who were born in the U.S. (1.50) as opposed to immigrant women.

Simultaneously, "Baby Boomers" are approaching older age, which brings higher mortality rates with it. It's happening at such a quick pace that the death rate is expected to surpass the birth rate in just four years. What would follow is a stagnant population and then a population decline, potentially in 2056, leading to an economic catastrophe.

As the number of retired Americans grows, the number of adults working to support them through Social Security and Medicare will decline. "The Social Security population is projected to increase from 349 million people this year to 364 million in 2056," said the CBO report.

That segment of the population will grow more quickly on average than younger populations.

Eva Roytburg explained at Fortune:

The economic consequences of this shift are hard to overstate. While the number of retirees swells, the pool of workers funding the social safety net — and caring for the aging population —  is narrowing. Americans aged 65 and older are the fastest-growing segment of the population, pushing the 'old-age dependency ratio' sharply higher.

In 1960, there were about five workers for every retiree. Today, that ratio is closer to three-to-one. By the mid-2050s, the CBO projects it will fall to roughly two workers per retiree. The contraction will have 'significant implications' on the federal budget, including outsized effects on Social Security and Medicare, placing pressure on those trust funds which rely on a robust base of payroll taxes that a stagnant population cannot easily provide.

Population decline also harms the ability of a nation to invest in social services.

In addition, the loss of workers (and therefore, productivity) means the American economy will have to become more reliant on technology.

But this problem isn't a recent discovery. According to the U.S. Census, in the 2010s, four states, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia, already had more deaths than births.

In addition, since 2008, deaths have actually remained stable overall, but births have dropped a dramatic 24% due to decreased fertility rates in women in their 20s and 30s.

According to the CBO, the only group that will keep the population stable or growing is the immigrant population, which is also having more children. However, immigration rates are also expected to drop.

"Net immigration (the number of people who migrate to the United States minus the number who leave) is projected to become an increasingly important source of population growth in the coming years, as declining fertility rates cause the annual number of deaths to exceed the annual number of births starting in 2030. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030," said the report.

In addition, the birth rate for females ages 14 to 29 is expected to drop below the birth rate for women ages 30 to 49 for the first time. Many young women are either delaying childbirth or forgoing it altogether. By delaying childbirth, it is more likely that they will have fewer children than if they had begun in their 20s as opposed to their 30s.

The Bottom Line:

There has been "a generational change in attitudes" about marriage and children, said demographer Ken Johnson. It isn't just about delaying pregnancy; it's about avoiding pregnancy and parenting altogether.

For example, births among White American women dropped 19% between 2009 and 2023, but would have dropped just 2.3% if age were the only contributing factor to childbearing, according to Illuminem.

If young adult Americans don't begin having children or having more children, the U.S. is likely headed for a difficult demographic winter.