'New era': Group says deaths poised to exceed births in UK in 2026

The United Kingdom (UK) has entered a demographic crossroads in 2026, according to one UK think-tank, in which deaths are poised to exceed births.

Key Takeaways:

• A UK think-tank believes 2026 could be the start of a trend in which deaths outnumber births in the United Kingdom.

• Both natural population growth and immigration have decreased, and the idea of using immigrant populations as an attempt to boost the population is politically controversial.

• The UK’s demographic crisis may be a consequence of how the culture normalizes and trivializes abortion, glosses over marriage, and regards motherhood and childbirth as economic burdens.

The Details:

This change signifies what demographers have labeled as a “new era” for Britain — one characterized by an aging population, diminishing workforce, and the impending burden of higher taxes for working-age people. 

UK think-tank The Resolution Foundation, in its New Year Outlook 2026 report, cautioned that this year could be the “turning point” at which deaths consistently surpass births and the natural population of the UK begins to decrease (without immigration). Births have historically exceeded deaths almost every year since the start of the 20th century, with only temporary exceptions in 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak and again in 2023, making the forecasted shift in 2026 a drastic break with the past.

“... 2026 may be the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin, forever closing a chapter in the demographics of this country that opened over a century ago,” the report states. 

According to media outlet The Independent: 

Initial figures published in January by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the population was projected to increase by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032. This has been revised to the new figure of 5.9%, after the ONS said its short-term projections were ‘running too high’.

The population of England is also projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, rising by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with the previous projection of 7.8%. 

Sky News reported, "The Resolution Foundation expects this to be a long-term trend that could mean 'fewer people of working age' and 'higher taxes.' It suggests immigration would be needed to make up the numbers. But the change comes just as UK political parties are locked in a fight over who can best reduce current levels of immigration as the issue rises up the political agenda."

Greg Thwaites, co-author of the think-tank’s report, told the Independent:

"This may shift the conversation on migration away from arguments over whether the country is already ‘full’ and onto whether we want to address population decline. However, migration policy, and how much it should prioritise economic growth over other considerations, is likely to remain politically charged.”

The report noted that both natural population growth and international migration are down.

“Taken together, these trends point to a country in the middle of a slow but consequential transition: fewer people of working age; a more fragile politics; higher taxes; and an economy that urgently needs new firms and new jobs to replace the old,” the report warned. 

A reduced working-age population could impact pensions, social services for retirees, and health care in a country currently considering legalizing assisted suicide as a cost-cutting measure to universal health care. Higher taxes, later retirement ages, and decreased benefits could come about in an effort to compensate for the economic deficit. 

The Resolution Foundation also singled out major worries regarding living standards, predicting “nowhere-near-good-enough” income growth for the coming years, even as it noted that eradicating the two-child benefit cap should dramatically decrease child poverty.

The Bottom Line:

From a pro-life viewpoint, social support for larger families, safeguards for preborn children, and tangible help for parents experiencing unplanned pregnancies are crucial if the UK hopes to sustain itself without a long-standing reliance on immigration to tackle demographic shortages. 

All in all, the UK’s demographic crisis may be a consequence of how its culture normalizes and trivializes abortion, glosses over marriage, and regards motherhood and childbirth as economic burdens.

The report by the Resolution Foundation prompts deep questions about what kind of country the UK wishes to be down the road: one that depends almost totally on migration to replace countless unborn children it has refused to welcome, or one that is in favor of life and family across generations.