Shock erupts as UK data shows one-third of pregnancies end in abortion

(Percuity) On 17 November 2025, Philip Pilkington, an economist and senior researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, posted a thread on X in which he said “Britain is in a phase of self-euthanisation.” [i] He shared some data analysis, including mine,[ii] showing that in 2024 one-third of all viable pregnancies ended in abortion. He said, “this is a major signal that something is deeply wrong in the economy. Britain is heading to an almighty demographic crash-out.” and finished that tweet by linking abortion and the declining birth rate to the need for much higher immigration.[iii]

There have been many on X and other social media who have commented how shocked they were to read that one-third of pregnancies were ending in abortion. It would be fair to say that most people following Pilkington and others reading the retweets of his thread, had no idea that this was where we have now arrived, and the overwhelming majority, even those professing their leaning towards being pro-choice, are outraged that this is happening at such a high rate.

Pilkington cited this earlier post, 300,000 abortions per year in the UK, in which I projected the annual number of abortions across the UK in 2023 and 2024. In that, I stated that the ratio of abortions to live births in 2022 was officially published as 40.2 abortions per 100 live births and projected a 16% increase to 46.6 in 2024.

One-third ending in abortion, not yet 50%

Many jumped on Pilkington’s tweets to shout their disgust and concern that almost half of all pregnancies are being aborted. This is an common misreading of this particular ratio. I am projecting that in 2024 there will be 46.6 abortions for every 100 live births, a ratio of 46.6:100. Pregnancies are the total of abortions and live births combined, so abortions as a percentage of pregnancies is 46.6/(46.6+100) = 32%, as in the table below.

There has been a very steep rise in this ratio, especially since about 2016/17, as shown in this graph.

[...]

There has been a steep increase in abortions in the last fifteen years; in 2009 one-in-five of all pregnancies ended in abortion, by 2020 this had risen to one-in-four, and just four years later this has reached 32%, one-in-three.

The only data in this table that remain as projections are the numbers of abortions in 2023 and 2024. In the above mentioned post, I explain how I’ve taken a bottom-up approach for these projections, using official data from Scotland and Northern Ireland, and published audited data from BPAS, MSI-RC, and NUPAS for those two years; so these projections are not a simple extrapolation of the curve.[v]

Reasons why

Abortion is not the reason ‘why’ our birth rates are in such decline, but I do consider it to be the most significant ‘how’. Women are postponing motherhood or having fewer children for many different reasons. Pilkington said, 

“There is a massive reluctance to carry babies to term.”

He concluded that falling living standards in Britain, driven by spiking energy costs and rising inflation, is causing people to be so pessimistic that they are refusing to reproduce.

Yes, economic pressures—the cost-of-living, the cost of childcare, high rents and unaffordable housing—are clear drivers but perhaps not the only ones. Others include e.g.,  postponing family formation until further education studies are completed, that next promotion has been achieved, and of course finding the ‘right’ person to settle down with. This is a complex issue, one that we must explore more fully, and at pace. There might still be time to reverse this decline in the birth rate and to secure a better future for our grandchildren.

Contraception and abortion as birth control

Since Pilkington mentions contraception, I will finish with this. A recent paper published in the BMJ,[vi] tells us that among women presenting for an abortion at BPAS, the proportion of those who reported not using any contraception at the time of becoming pregnant, has risen sharply from 55.8% in 2018 to 69.6% in 2023—a 25% increase. This make me wonder if some of the recent increase in abortion is because some women are forgoing, or unable to access, effective contraception and instead are using abortion as birth control, especially given how much easier it is now with telemedicine and pills-by-post—a matter definitely requiring further investigation.

[i] Philip Pilkington on X: “1/ There is now strong reason to think that British people are starting to aggressively curtail their own reproduction. At the same time the government is increasing immigration to prevent the country from bankruptcy. Britain is in a phase of self-euthanisation. 🧵 https://t.co/GT0RjLEKxn” / X. (n.d.). X (Formerly Twitter). https://x.com/philippilk/status/1990333498582859908

[ii] Philip Pilkington on X: “3/ The 2022 data is official, but the 2023 and 2024 is based on bottom up estimates from Percuity. The data seems robust to me. But so long as the 2022 jump remains, as it has in Scottish data, the self-euthanisation interpretation holds. https://t.co/m4yMMXorX1” / X. (2001, November 17). X (Formerly Twitter). https://x.com/philippilk/status/1990333517193265281

[iii] Philip Pilkington on X: “British abortion rates as a % of pregnancies are exploding in spite of recent innovations in contraception. This a major signal that something is deeply wrong in the economy. Britain is heading to an almighty demographic crash-out. Which means much higher immigration! 🇬🇧📉 https://t.co/O7k9MH5b1r” / X. (2001, November 15). X (Formerly Twitter). https://x.com/philippilk/status/1990020080441118849

[iv] These Births and Abortions data are taken from official datasets published by the Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. The totals are for the United Kingdom, including data from all four nations.

[v] Given that these are projections, I tend to headline the numbers as 2023: 290,000 and 2024: 300,000.

[vi] McNee, R., McCulloch, H., Lohr, P. A., & Glasier, A. (2025). Self-reported contraceptive method use at conception among patients presenting for abortion in England: a cross-sectional analysis comparing 2018 and 2023. BMJ Sexual & Reproductive Health, 51(3), 186–190. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsrh-2024-202573 and https://srh.bmj.com/content/51/3/186