Jamaica’s fertility rate is now among the lowest in the world

Recent data from the 2025 State of World Population report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reveals that the fertility rate in Jamaica is now just 1.3 births for women — among the lowest in the world.

While the UNFPA report makes some questionable assertions about the need for greater “reproductive agency” to ensure more births (read more about its statements here), its data does show that Jamaica is potentially facing a real demographic crisis.

Key Takeaways:

• Recent data suggests that the current birth rate in Jamaica is 1.3 births per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1.

• Many people cite economic difficulties as a factor for not wanting to have children.

• Sources within the country say better enforcement of its abortion laws, in addition to more social support, could help boost the population.

The Details:

The UNFPA report shows that the current fertility rate in Jamaica is 1.3 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Just 20 years ago, the rate was an average of 2.5 births per woman.

The new, low rate puts Jamaica on par with the countries experiencing the most population decline, including China, Japan, Greece, Italy, and South Korea.

In many cases, people cite economic difficulties as one of the top reasons for limiting the number of children they choose to have.

“Out of 10,000 people who reported having or wanting to have children, 39 per cent reported that financial limitations were a factor that had affected or would affect their ability to realize their desired family size,” the report notes.

This data correlates with declining population numbers; the Planning Institute of Jamaica’s latest Economic and Social Survey Jamaica reported that the population declined by 0.1 percent in 2024, for a total population an estimated 2,700,400.

Commentary:

“Jamaica’s current position is especially worrying. With a replacement birth rate of just 1.3 per cent, the population is shrinking at a time when productivity needs to increase. This demographic trajectory will continue to exert pressure on the country’s ability to sustain growth,” Dr. Nelson “Chris” Stokes told the Jamaica Observer.

The population crisis has been in Jamaican news in recent months. Dr. Jackie Campbell noted in May that many families are adamant that they only want one child — and she’s seeing more women seeking abortions, even though abortion is technically illegal in the country.

“I speak with my patients. I’m a family physician, and they will come in and they say, ‘Look here, Doc, I’m having one child. Children are expensive.’ Men say that to me. Women say that. And the next thing I think that we need to talk about – this is opening a bag of worms here – is the fact that more and more persons are coming to my office, and they are pregnant females, young females, and they are requesting terminations of the pregnancy. And I have to say to them that is not a service I offer.”

This was an observation echoed by sociologist Georgia Crawford, who said that better enforcement of abortion laws — in addition to providing more social and economic support for parents and families — would help to mitigate the population crisis.

“We might have to ban the number of morning-after pills that are openly available and really clamp down on the abortion clinics that we know exist, even though it’s illegal – because if we are facing a crisis, then you have to take bold steps,” she said.

The Bottom Line:

Jamaica isn’t the only country facing a population decline.

Live Action News has shared similar reports demonstrating that countries around the world, including the U.S., are experiencing shrinking fertility rates.

Without more widespread policies that support families, as well as a societal acceptance of children as a blessing rather than a burden, it is likely that fertility rates will continue to suffer.

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