Estonia warned it may have just 5 years to reverse population collapse

Estonia is at a crucial demographic crossroads in which the survival of its people, culture, and language depends on whether families welcome more children in the next few years. 

Key Takeaways:

• Estonia, like many countries around the world, is facing a serious demographic decline.

• Experts warn that the small country has just a few years to reverse the trend.

• The government is being encouraged to take action to spur more people to embrace families and parenthood.

The Details:

Bigbank chief economist Raul Eamets has cautioned that Estonia has about five years to reverse the trend of its population decline before it becomes practically irreversible, impacting the country's economic future as well as its cultural survival and security.

Calling on political leaders to tackle this issue promptly, Eamets said Estonia is feeling a “demographic math problem."

"We have a very short window of opportunity right now and we should make the most of it. Five years from now — or worse, ten years from now — if we wake up then, it'll already be hopeless," Eamets explained.

Eamets pointed out that the already-small generation born in the 2000s will soon start reaching childbearing age, which will dramatically decrease the number of potential mothers, possibly by as many as half.

The economist said the declining birth rate should not be viewed merely as an economic challenge. While a smaller workforce could strain the country's pension system, Eamets contended that the greater concern with Estonia’s declining birth rates lies in national defense.

“If there aren’t enough young men to serve in the military, then who are we building and buying weapons for?” Eamets asked, cautioning that at present birth rates, the armed forces could face a shortage of around 2,500 soldiers within the next 18 to 20 years.

Birth Rates are Declining Around the World

Zoom In:

To address the falling birth rates, Eamets suggested several measures:

• Motivating people to move from cities to smaller communities, quoting economic geography research that associates higher fertility rates with rural areas. “When people are packed into small city apartments, birth rates inevitably drop,” Eamets said. According to the economist, a detached home with a safe yard could ensure the type of environment that encourages larger families. (This rings true; in the U.S., some city planners have created zoning laws (often referred to as "vasectomy zoning") that only allow small apartments, banning units with three or more bedrooms as a means of coercive population control, making it intentionally difficult for families with children to live there.)

• Stronger government participation in regional development, including financial incentives and favorable loan terms for constructing homes outside key urban centers. He continued that such measures would not merely boost population growth, but also bolster national security if more citizens settled down in southeastern regions like Setomaa. 

• Adopting proactive steps to encourage families to have a third child. “That's something some political parties have tried to do. But then it gets rolled back and maybe later reversed again," he said. "This kind of back-and-forth undermines confidence. If we've agreed on family policy measures, they should stay in place for a while because children aren't born overnight — it takes planning. We need stability."

"Of course, the economic side matters," he continued. "But so do housing, a sense of security, finding and trusting a partner, health... There are many factors and we know them — there's been plenty written about this. Now we just need to start working through the issues one by one."

By The Numbers:

Preliminary figures place Estonia’s population on 1 January 2026 at having fallen by over 7,000 in one year. As of January 1, 2026, the population of Estonia stood at 1,362,954.

For the first time in more than 10 years, Estonia registered negative net migration: between January 1 and the previous year, 11,298 people moved into the country, while 12,004 left.

Kadri Rootalu, service manager of population and education statistics at Statistics Estonia, admitted: 

"Last year, over 6,000 more people died than were born. Emigration remained at the level of 2024, but immigration decreased. Net migration was negative for the first time since 2014. The population of Estonia declined by 7,041 overall.” 

The Bottom Line:

Like many European countries, Estonia has encountered a below‑replacement fertility rate for decades. The 1990s witnessed a sharp drop in births, creating a demographic gap that is reducing the number of yearly births even more. Recent predictions indicate that Estonia’s population could drop to around 1.2 million by around 2080–2085, primarily due to dismal fertility rates and an aging society.