Estimates that say abortions didn’t drop after Dobbs are questionable. Here’s why.

(National Review) On Wednesday, the Society of Family Planning released updated abortion estimates from their #WeCount project. Their new estimates include monthly U.S. abortion totals up to September 2023. The new data purportedly show that between July 2023 and September 2023 approximately 81,000 to 89,000 abortions were performed every month. According to their report, these figures are comparable to monthly abortion numbers prior to the Dobbs decision.  This spin has been eagerly picked up by a number of mainstream-media outlets including the Associated Press, the Hill, and U.S. News and World Report.

Not surprisingly, the same methodological flaws that were present in past #WeCount estimates are present in this current version. Specifically, the #WeCount project compares monthly post-Dobbs abortion data to pre-Dobbs abortion data. However, it estimated abortions for only two months prior to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. That is a very small sample size. It should be also noted that Texas and Oklahoma were both enforcing strong pro-life laws before Dobbs. That reduces the pre-Dobbs abortion estimates and makes any post-Dobbs decline appear less dramatic.

One interesting detail about this new #WeCount report is that it provides estimates of telehealth abortions. It claims that about 16 percent of all abortions performed in the U.S. between July 2023 and September 2023 were done via telehealth. There may be reasons to question these estimates. However, there is good research showing that chemical abortions done under medical supervision pose serious health risks. That over 10,000 chemical abortions are taking place every month in the United States without in-person medical supervision is certainly a cause for concern.

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Missing in the media coverage of these new #WeCount estimates is that since late 2022 four studies analyzing birth data have provided strong statistical evidence that recently enacted pro-life laws have saved lives. My Lozier Institute study (November 2022), a Journal of the American Medical Association study (June 2023), and a University of Houston study (January 2024) all show that the Texas Heartbeat Act resulted in approximately 1,000 more children being born in Texas every month. Also, a study from November 2023 by the Institute for Labor Economics showed similar findings. Analyzing birth data from the first six months of 2023, the study found significantly higher birth rates in 13 states enforcing strong pro-life laws than in 25 states where abortion remained legal.

Overall, regardless of how the mainstream media spin the current #WeCount abortion estimates, there remains very powerful evidence that recently enacted pro-life laws have prevented abortions and are saving lives.

Editor’s Note: This article was published at National Review and is reprinted here with permission.

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