Elon Musk sounds alarm on falling birth rates in India and Australia

As birth rates plummet around the globe, billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk continues to raise the alarm — most recently calling out the decreasing fertility rates in India and Australia.

India’s fertility rate has plummeted to below replacement level, a demographic change garnering global attention and sparking crucial questions about population policy, cultural priorities, and the long-term ramifications of faltering birth rates in the country thought to have the world’s largest population at the moment. 

Key Takeaways:

• India's fertility rate has dropped to below replacement level.

• Elon Musk spoke out against the decline in the fertility rate, saying it is the "most educated" that are having fewer children.

• India has a controversial track record of coercive family planning measures such as forced sterilization.

The Details:

Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk recently singled out the phenomenon, alluding to data depicting how India — long linked to rapid population growth — is presently witnessing a fertility decline that could reshape its future.

India

As per recent figures, India’s total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the threshold needed to sustain a stable population without immigration.

In a post on social media platform X, Musk penned: 

“India's birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India's birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.” 

Strikingly, Musk was reacting to figures circulated by AF Post, which also shared the significant population decline over the past 10 years, with fertility rates decreasing from 2.3 to 1.9. 

In addition, the report highlighted drastic regional differences, pinpointing that Delhi’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.2. Furthermore, AF Post referenced a June 4 analysis released by The Economist, which suggested that India’s population may soon start to contract, perhaps at a quicker rate than earlier projections had predicted. 

Similar findings were reaffirmed in the United Nations Population Fund’s 2025 State of World Population Report, which showed that India’s fertility rate now stands at 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement benchmark. When fertility falls beneath this level, and without adequate migration, populations tend to shrink over time as each successive generation becomes smaller than the previous one, based on a report by Newspoint. 

With a population exceeding 1.46 billion, India overtook China in 2023 to rank as the most populous country in the world.

Observers have consistently posited that higher levels of education, rapid urban growth, greater participation of women in the workforce, and evolving attitudes toward family size have all played a role in lowering fertility rates across much of India.

For instance, an analysis by The Economist highlighted education as one of the key drivers behind India’s declining fertility rate. The Economist article stated: 

“But demographers have long shown that what really counts is girls’ education. Schooling means that girls gain more autonomy and a greater say in life’s decisions. It is no coincidence that, in the 1990s, both India and much of Africa saw a huge surge in girls attending schools. It is only in the few places where most girls still don’t go into formal education—like Niger, northern Nigeria or Chad—that fertility has hardly budged. Education shoves down fertility in another way, too. The more aspirational parents get, the more they need to invest in each child. This dynamic is accelerated when public schools are dire. Remarkably, 39% of Indian children went to fee-paying schools last year, up from 32% in 2015. Parents are caught in an educational arms race. If your neighbours have few kids and spend more on their education, your own will be out-competed unless you do the same.” 

With this recent piece of news, India currently stands at a crossroads. While population stabilization has often been portrayed as a policy “success," especially after years of government-sanctioned family planning campaigns, observers cautioned that long-term declines below replacement level can spark economic, social, and cultural challenges.

Already, various developed countries across Europe and East Asia are witnessing aging populations, declining workforces, and rising pressure on social systems. In view of this, India’s shift suggests that even developing economies are not immune to such impacts. 

Australia

Musk also recently spoke about the declining birth rate in Australia, saying that Australians are “disappearing."

Australia's fertility has been below the replacement rate for nearly 50 years, but the birth rate hit a record low of 1.48 in 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, Australia’s population continues to rise at 1.6% annually, mostly through immigration.

One commenter on X noted that the abortion rate in Australia could be part of the reason for the decline:

The Backstory:

These shifts cannot be analyzed independently from the ethical and human consequences of India’s population control policies.

India has controversial track record of coercive family planning measures such as forced sterilization, particularly during the 1970s, as well as ongoing concerns about sex-selective abortion and the trivialization of unborn life. Once fertility declines are driven in part by societal pressures that exalt certain lives at the expense of others, the implications trickle down beyond demographics into issues of justice and human dignity.

The Bottom Line:

India’s case is particularly important due to its massive size and global influence. As the country navigates its demographic future, policymakers will need to balance economic development with life-affirming and family-friendly policies that promote childbearing and parenthood. Such efforts should entail encouraging a culture that honors and values every human life from the moment of conception.