Agency warns Poland’s population may fall further than forecast

Poland is experiencing a significant demographic crisis, with its population reportedly poised to decline faster than even the most somber forecasts of previous years.

Key Takeaways:

• Statistics Poland warns that the population of Poland could drop by 24% in just 35 years.

• The country has had a very low fertility rate for decades and has seen 12 consecutive years with deaths surpassing births.

• Many Poles are postponing marriage and childbirth by several years.

The Details:

Recent figures by Statistics Poland (GUS) have disclosed that, should present birth rate trends continue, Poland’s population could drop from 37.4 million today to as low as 28.4 million by 2060—a sharp 24 percent decline in only 35 years.

For pro-life readers committed to the sanctity of human life and the preservation of families, these figures are a clarion call pointing out key social and cultural issues that require robust and compassionate solutions.

Notes from Poland reported: 

“Both the official and experimental scenarios foresee a steep decline in the number of people of pre-working and working age. The number of people of pre-working age, i.e. under 18, currently stands at 18.2% of the population. The official 2023 forecast predicts that will fall to 15.5% by 2060, but the new, experimental calculations see it dropping to just 11.9%. The number of people of post-working age currently represents 23.3% of the population. The 2023 forecast foresees that reaching 35.6% by 2060, while the new calculations predict a figure of 37.4%.

In both the official and experimental scenarios, the number of working-age people would account for less than half the population by 2060. Under the new projection, their number would fall to around 14 million, 47.6%, down from 58.4% currently.” 

The Backstory:

The root of Poland’s demographic woes lies in its historically low fertility rate: just 1.1 children per woman in 2024, one of the world’s lowest, and far below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to stabilize the population. This is not a sudden drop, but the consequence of a decades-long trend. Statistics from previous years reveal a continuous pattern: births fell to an unprecedented low of 252,000 in 2024, while deaths were 409,000. The country has seen 12 consecutive years with deaths surpassing births — which not only decreases the population but also creates a swiftly aging society. 

Consequently, Poland’s aging profile will put more pressure on multiple social systems.

Cultural change is at the core of this transformation. Poland, known for its strong Catholic heritage and commitment to pro-life values, now finds itself challenged by shifting priorities among its younger generations. According to Polskiego Radia:

Between 1993 and 2020, the average age at first marriage for both men and women in Poland increased by nearly 5 years. Men typically marry for the first time at the age of 30, while women do so at 27 years. Additionally, Polish women have their first child at an increasingly later age. From 1995 to 2021, the average age of women at the time of their first childbirth rose by 4.4 years—from 23 to 28 years respectively.

Many Poles postpone marriage and childbearing, while economic uncertainties, housing shortages, and future uncertainties further deter parenthood and childbirth. Even the government’s pro-family programs—like the “500+” child benefit, later increased to “800+”—have failed to stem the downward trend in births.

Such has been the degree of Poland’s birth crisis that major companies have started motivating couples to conceive children. For example, one of Poland’s largest hotel and real estate firms, Arche, is presently  dangling rewards for clients who have babies on their grounds. As Notes from Poland reported: 

The offer’s terms say that the couple – who must reside in Poland, with at least one of them being a Polish citizen – need to ‘demonstrate that conception occurred in connection with their stay at an Arche hotel’. However, the proof need only consist of confirmation of when they stayed at the hotel and a birth certificate showing when the child was born. Meanwhile, couples who purchase a property from Arche for their own residential purposes will be awarded 10,000 zloty (€2,344) for each child born over the next five years. The firm will also offer the same bonus to employees who conceive children.

Although Poland’s demographic crisis has been slightly mitigated by mass immigration, with over a million foreign workers registered in recent years, observers from the state Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) have cautioned that it would be “unrealistic” to expect migration inflows alone to be high enough to alleviate the country’s population decline. Foreign workers would only temporarily alleviate workforce shortages but fail to resuscitate Poland’s ailing cultural and social foundations.  

The Bottom Line:

Poland’s demographic woes are not merely about official figures. Reinstating the importance of supporting mothers, protecting unborn life, and creating communities that see children not as burdens but as the promise of a brighter future is a paramount first step to address the country’s ailing population.